November Housing Inventory Nearly Quadruples AUSTIN, TX — For the first time since February 2019, median home prices in the Austin-Round Rock MSA experienced a 0% year over year increase, according to the Austin Board of REALTORS® November 2022 Central Texas Housing Market Report. As housing inventory and days on the market continue to steadily increase across the MSA, the report indicates normal market activity could be here to stay, as Austin’s housing market maintains its trajectory toward balance and sustainability. For the first time since the spring of 2020, there were no records broken for home sales or median price in either the MSA or City of Austin. Last month, home sales declined by 36.6% to 2,026 closed listings— the largest drop in closings by percentage since May 2020 during the initial COVID-19 economic hesitancy when closings fell 29.2%. Sales dollar volume fell by 36.8% to $1,175,435,108 as new listings declined 17.8% to 2,406 listings across the MSA. Pending listings dropped by 38.3% to 1,987 listings and available inventory increased by 2.3 months to 3.1 months of inventory. Homes spent an average of 58 days on market, up 36 days from November 2021.
“It’s a relief to see more homes available and sitting on the market long enough to give buyers an opportunity to think before they leap,” Cord Shiflet, 2022 ABoR president, said. “This healthy competition creates an opportunity for homebuyers, who may have struggled within the past two years, to take their time and find a home they love. At the same time, sellers who can still enjoy deep equity should connect with a REALTOR® to discuss the best way to prepare and market their home.” “In January, we experienced the lowest inventory on a national level since 1999,” Dr. Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of REALTORS® said. “The average number of offers reached an all-time high in the spring, nationally, at 5.5 offers a home, since everyone knew interest rates would increase. Because of this, we saw this frenzied pace in the market, especially here in Austin, where the massive migration flow of people from other parts of the country caused home prices to increase. This was not a good market for anyone.”
City of Austin In November, home sales decreased 49.4% to 529 sales—the largest drop in closings by percentage since May 2020 when closings dropped by 36.6%— while sales dollar volume decreased 49.2% to $352,744,056. At the same time, median price slightly decreased 1.8% to $530,000 for the City of Austin. Last month, new listings dropped 21.9% to 685 listings, active listings skyrocketed 182.9% to 2,300 listings as pending sales declined by 46.6% to 536 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory increased 1.9 months year over year to 2.6 months of inventory.
Travis County
In Travis County, home sales decreased 45.4%% to 882 sales, while sales dollar volume decreased 44.1% to $614,701,585. Last month, median price in Travis County slightly rose 0.8% year over year to $529,000 as new listings decreased -20.1% to 1,083 listings and active listings ballooned 204.7% to 3,943 listings year over year. Pending sales declined 46.6% to 854 pending sales as monthly housing inventory increased 2.2 months year over year to 2.9 months of inventory.
Williamson County November home sales decreased 33.8% to 730 sales in Williamson County. Sales dollar volume declined 34.2% year over year to $360,132,515. The median price slightly decreased 1.1% to $439,945 as new listings dropped 17.9% to 825 listings. During the same period, active listings soared 303.3% to 2,972 listings while pending sales dropped 31.7% to 751 pending sales. Housing inventory rose 2.4 months to 3.0 months of inventory.
Hays County In Hays County, November home sales decreased 13.6% to 273 sales and sales dollar volume also slightly decreased 7% to $143,056,087. The median price for homes rose 5.2% to $414,500. During the same period, new listings decreased 22.7% to 313 listings, while active listings skyrocketed by 189.8% to 1,281 listings. Pending sales decreased 27.6% to 265 pending sales as housing inventory jumped by 2.4 months to 3.5 months of inventory. (information courtesy of ACTRIS)
National Market Update New Home Sales shot up 5.8% in November after surging 8.2% in October and now sit at a 640,000-unit annual rate. The welcome gains were put to homebuilder incentives and the recent dip in mortgage rates. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reversed course in November, posting a modest gain. The survey noted, “Consumers continue to expect mortgage rates to rise but home prices to decline.” Existing Home Sales fell in November, blamed on declining affordability. But the good news is, median prices are falling, now down five months in a row, and mortgage rates have lately dropped nearly a full percentage point. Housing Starts slipped in November, all due to single-families, as multi-unit starts rose. But builders already have lots of projects in the pipeline, with the number of homes under construction at the highest level in the last 50-plus years. Home price gains are moderating. Real estate data firm CoreLogic reports: “Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October.” They forecast home prices up only 4.1% annually by October 2023. Earlier this month, the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of rate hikes from 0.75% to 0.50%, along with lower-than-expected consumer price inflation, sent mortgage rates lower. Both signaled that inflation may be starting to cool. Freddie Mac confirmed: “Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week…. The good news for the housing market is that recent declines in rates have led to a stabilization in purchase demand.” The Mortgage Bankers Association chimed in with the view that declining rates should “encourage more homebuyers to return to the market in early 2023,” as overall mortgage applications already rose 3.2% last week.. Wall Street still expects a quarter percent rate hike in February and another quarter percent in March, but then no move up in May.
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